Small, Fast, & Simple

February 9, 2015

The Lindy Effect


Nassim Taleb describes the Lindy Effect in his book Antifragile, which states that the longer a technology or idea has been around, the longer it’ll probably be around. The Lindy Effect is a statistical consideration about where in the life of a thing we’re likely to be. In short, the younger a technology is, the sooner it’s likely to become irrelevant; the older a technology is, the harder it will be to displace. Some specific examples: JavaScript will probably be around for another couple decades; TypeScript and Dart probably only have another year or two of relevance.